{"asOf":"2026-09-19T19:36:33.781Z","source":{"kind":"on-chain event log","chain":"Robinhood Chain","chainId":4663,"contract":"0x65cf45524407a5e700188a8a8178d5d5c0c38d30","event":"QuotePosted","note":"No database. Recomputable by anyone from the chain alone."},"method":{"claim":"confidenceBps is a two-sided 95% interval. A quote published while the tape is shut is a claim about a price nobody can observe yet; the first live print that follows settles it.","atReopen":"One score per closure, using the last band published before the tape reopened. The fitted sigma is anchored on a complete close-to-open gap, so this is the only apples-to-apples comparison with the backtest.","allDuringClosure":"Every band published during a closure, scored against the same reopening print. Reads lower than atReopen by construction: the band widens with elapsed staleness, so a quote published early in a long weekend carries an overnight-sized band against a weekend-sized move.","notScored":"Consecutive live prints. A TRADED band is dispersion around a price that already exists, not a forecast, so testing the next print against it would test a claim the oracle never made.","bandArithmetic":"Edges computed as (price * confidenceBps) / 10000 in integer arithmetic, matching HoodOracle.getBandedPrice exactly.","interval":"Wilson score, 95%."},"window":{"firstPublish":"2026-09-19T00:43:16.000Z","lastPublish":"2026-09-19T19:15:00.000Z","quotesRead":173,"signers":["0xA139E54E6c88420cb5546c64130d1Ba145Ff9C8A"]},"nominalPct":95,"atReopen":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"allDuringClosure":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"model":{"calibratedAt":"2026-09-19T02:01:47.000Z","sinceCalibration":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"beforeCalibration":0,"note":"npm run calibrate rewrites the betas and sigmas. Bands published before calibratedAt came from a different model, so they are counted in atReopen (that is what consumers were handed) and excluded from sinceCalibration (which asks whether the model running now is calibrated)."},"perTicker":{"HOOD":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"COIN":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"NVDA":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"TSLA":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"AAPL":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"MSTR":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"SPY":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null},"TLT":{"n":0,"hits":0,"coveragePct":null,"ci":null,"meanRatio":null}},"pending":[{"ticker":"HOOD","quotes":31,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:16.000Z"},{"ticker":"COIN","quotes":34,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:21.000Z"},{"ticker":"NVDA","quotes":14,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:25.000Z"},{"ticker":"TSLA","quotes":15,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:29.000Z"},{"ticker":"AAPL","quotes":9,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:34.000Z"},{"ticker":"MSTR","quotes":52,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:38.000Z"},{"ticker":"SPY","quotes":9,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:43.000Z"},{"ticker":"TLT","quotes":9,"since":"2026-09-19T00:43:47.000Z"}],"episodes":0}